{"id":1725,"date":"2016-01-11T16:33:17","date_gmt":"2016-01-11T14:33:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bcdturkey.com.tr\/?p=1725"},"modified":"2016-01-11T16:33:17","modified_gmt":"2016-01-11T14:33:17","slug":"risk-yonetimi-2010-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/risk-yonetimi-2010-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Risk Y\u00f6netimi 2010 – 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2010 \u2013 2020 on y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 tamamlad\u0131k. Her on y\u0131l kendi i\u00e7erisinde sosyal,ekonomik, siyasi ve teknolojik\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 geli\u015fimleri ya\u015f\u0131yor\u00a0 <\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7mi\u015f zamana\u00a010 ar y\u0131ll\u0131k , 50 \u015fer y\u0131ll\u0131k, 100 er y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemler diye bakmaya\u00a0ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u00a0art\u0131k tarih konu\u015fmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz . \u0130nsanlar\u00a0 inceleme, ara\u015ft\u0131rma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re analiz yaparak matematiksel rasyonel de\u011ferlendirme yapabildiklerinden asl\u0131nda olaylar ve geli\u015fmeleri\u00a0 \u00f6nyarg\u0131s\u0131z ve tarafs\u0131z de\u011ferlendirebilmeleride daha kolay oluyor diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.\u00a0 Bu s\u00fcreci ki\u015finin kendini \u00f6zg\u00fcr d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceye g\u00f6t\u00fcren yolculu\u011fu olarakda tan\u0131mlayabiliriz, elbette bunun ilk \u015fart\u0131n\u0131n dinimizinde ilk emir olan okumak, okumak, okumak ve \u00e7ok\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek felsefe mant\u0131k ve matemati\u011fi benimsemek oldu\u011funuda hat\u0131rlamak gerek.<\/p>\n

Sitemizde her ay ba\u015f\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f ay \u00fc\u00e7 endeks sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 trendi ile birlikte ele al\u0131yoruz. Bunlardan BDI endeks D\u00fcnya ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k navlun ve gemi fiyatlar\u0131 ile birlikte \u00e7ok net ve objektif olarak ortaya koyuyor, peki son on y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda ne g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ?\u00a0 2010 Ocak ay\u0131nda 3.270 olan BDI endeks 2016 Ocak ilk g\u00fcn\u00fcnde en dip noktas\u0131na seyreden ve 478 e inen trendi ile 7 milyarl\u0131k n\u00fcfusa sahip D\u00fcnya ekonomisininde\u00a0gittik\u00e7e a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 seyreden m\u00fcthi\u015f \u00a0daralmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

\"BDI<\/p>\n

Risk y\u00f6netimi ile ilgili olarak ge\u00e7mi\u015f ay yorumlar\u0131m\u0131zda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ciddi anlamda d\u00fczenli k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesini \u201c Faiz Petrol ve B\u00fcy\u00fcme \u201c\u00a0 \u201cPetrol Fiyatlar\u0131 \u201c\u00a0 ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131larda ele alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k.\u00a0D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Petrol = Artan B\u00fcy\u00fcme , Y\u00fcksek Faiz = D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck B\u00fcy\u00fcme , B\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7inmi petrol fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya geliyor, petrol ve hammadde fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya geldi\u011fi i\u00e7inmi\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor sorular\u0131na cevap aram\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Nisan ay\u0131nda Obama ve Merkelin Ukrayna ve K\u0131r\u0131m olaylar\u0131 sonras\u0131 \u201c bunun yans\u0131malar\u0131 olacak\u201d\u00a0 s\u00f6zleri ile D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 B\u015fk.Yrd Truck\u2019\u0131n \u201cPetrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi iyi olmayabilir \u201c s\u00f6zleri\u00a0 hala kulaklar\u0131m\u0131zda.<\/p>\n

FED in s\u0131cak para politikalar\u0131na son vermesi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeleri s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131ya sokaca\u011f\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle Canan Hocan\u0131n bahsetti\u011fi gibi yo\u011fun \u015feker a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 beslenme\u00a0 ve GDO lu m\u0131s\u0131r \u015furubu ile ins\u00fclin direnci olu\u015fmu\u015f ve \u00e7abucak ac\u0131kan doymaz obez insanlar gibi\u00a0\u00a0toplumlar\u0131nda s\u0131cak para krizine girece\u011fi \u00e7ok belli de\u011filmi?<\/p>\n

On y\u0131ll\u0131k periodda ABD de ne olmu\u015f , T\u00fcrkiyede ne\u00a0 olmu\u015f\u00a0 bunada bir g\u00f6z atal\u0131m. ABD de i\u015fler yolunda g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcrken T\u00fcrkiye riski tavan yapm\u0131\u015f durumda .<\/p>\n

\"VIX\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\"CDS<\/p>\n

G 20 toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda kapitalizmin temsilcisi ve en \u00e7ok fayday\u0131 sa\u011flayan \u00fclkelerin bu sistemin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilili\u011fi ile ilgili sorgulamalar\u0131 ve yeni sistem aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile enteresan yakla\u015f\u0131m ve a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 acaba bu endekslerde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan sonu\u00e7laram\u0131 yoraca\u011f\u0131z. Son olarakda Suudi Arabistanda petrole gelen % 50 zam ve IMF nin Suudi Arabistan\u0131n 5 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde iflas edebilece\u011fi, siyasi analistlerinde vahabi ve \u015fiilerin yeni iktidar\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131rken Kral ve s\u00fclalesinin 600 mia usd ile ABD ye ka\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri .<\/p>\n

Futurist olmaya gerek yok ba\u015fta ABD insanlar birey olarak , toplum ve \u00fclkeler ise kurumsal yap\u0131lar olarak \u00e7ok ama \u00e7ok bor\u00e7lu, bunun d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclebilmesi olanaks\u0131z noktaya geldi sadece malum ilan edilmedi bu nedenle vekalet sava\u015flar\u0131 ile hakim g\u00fc\u00e7ler kendilerini y\u0131pratmadan mevzilerini\u00a0haz\u0131rlat\u0131yor\u00a0 ve kazd\u0131r\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel iflas ilan edildi\u011fi ve konsolidasyonlar g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011finde ge\u00e7er ak\u00e7e bilim , entellekt\u00fcel birikim, e\u011fitim, teknoloji, k\u00fclt\u00fcr, \u00fclke b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fck bilincine sahip bir halk ile temiz hava su ve do\u011fal g\u0131da potansiyeli y\u00fcksek\u00a0 toplumlar olacak.<\/p>\n

Konsolidasyonu biraz a\u00e7al\u0131m , gerek \u015firket ve gerekse \u00fclkelerin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 ve\u00a0 bu borcu \u00f6deyebilecek yayg\u0131n\u00a0 geliri sa\u011flayabilecek \u00fcretimi yapamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumda zorun oyunu bozdu\u011fu bir durum olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0 Gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n bozuklu\u011fuda bu sonucu tetikliyor, toplumda gelir adaletsizli\u011fi, \u015firketlerde \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetler sat\u0131\u015f karl\u0131l\u0131k dengesizlikleri ve \u00fclkelerin gelir tabanlar\u0131n dengesiz ve enerji gibi tek bir \u00fcr\u00fcne yada birka\u00e7 \u00fcr\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 olmas\u0131 yada ekonominin Suudi Arabistan gibi tamamen ithalata dayal\u0131 olmas\u0131\u00a0 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bir konsolidasyonla son buluyor. Bu ekonomik yap\u0131larda bor\u00e7 ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 pe\u015finde ya\u015fayan insanlar ise yava\u015f yava\u015f toplum olma \u00fclke bayrak bilin\u00e7lerini kaybederek\u00a0 konsolidasyonda daha kolay lokma haline geliyorlar, aynen Roman\u0131n ve Osmanl\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemlerinde oldu\u011fu gibi.<\/p>\n

Roma imparatorlu\u011fu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc merkezi y\u00f6netim ve askeri g\u00fcce ve askerlere sa\u011flanan imkanlarla devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flamaya dayanan bir imparatorluktu s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fli\u011fi ile ganimet kaynakl\u0131 gelir sa\u011flama s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n sonunun gelmesi imparatorlu\u011funda da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131na neden oldu, t\u0131pk\u0131 Osmanl\u0131 imparatorlu\u011funda oldu\u011fu gibi. S\u00f6m\u00fcrgecilik d\u00f6neminde ise S\u00f6m\u00fcrgeci devletler do\u011fal s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n sonuna gelmeleriyle b\u00fcnyelerinde g\u00fcc\u00fc sa\u011flayan dinamikleri besleyemedi ve da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131lar t\u0131pk\u0131 kanser gibi sonunda i\u00e7inde bulunduklar\u0131 b\u00fcnyeyi yok ediyorlar kendileri ile birlikte.<\/p>\n

Bu dengesizli\u011fi ortadan kald\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik giri\u015fim ve \u00f6rneklere, Roma imparatorlu\u011funun son d\u00f6nemlerinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan Germen krall\u0131klar\u0131 ile zaman i\u00e7inde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olsun benim olsun mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemeyece\u011fini farkeden bu krall\u0131klar\u0131n \u00f6nce Birle\u015fik Almanyay\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131 sonras\u0131ndada k\u0131ta Avrupas\u0131nda k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve demir hammadde kaynakl\u0131 sava\u015flarla s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fin yine olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 farkeden Almanya ve Fransa \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde AB olu\u015fumu sayabiliriz. T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyetinin Atat\u00fcrk \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki kurtulu\u015f felsefesi ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k sava\u015f\u0131da bu giri\u015fimlere \u00e7ok iyi bir \u00f6rnektir, Atat\u00fcrk D\u00fcnya tarihinde bir anlamda Ulus devletlerin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7arak s\u00f6m\u00fcrgecili\u011finde sonunu getirmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6m\u00fcrgecili\u011fin yerini alan emperyalizm ise \u201ctarih tekerr\u00fcrden ibarettir\u201d\u00a0 s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc kan\u0131tlarcas\u0131na yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ya\u015fananlar\u0131 bug\u00fcn tekrar ya\u015fama ge\u00e7irmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn bu yakla\u015f\u0131m olduk\u00e7a karamsar alg\u0131lanabilir ve de\u011ferlendirilebilir, bug\u00fcnlerde vizyona tekrar giren Star Wars ilk g\u00f6steriminde \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve o g\u00fcn abs\u00fcrd olamaz denilen \u00e7ok\u00e7a yenilik bug\u00fcn hayat\u0131m\u0131zda. BOP projesi ile a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya konan politikada bug\u00fcn Irak \u2013 Libya \u2013 Suriye art\u0131k yok, M\u0131s\u0131r \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye sorunlu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131, di\u011fer Afrika islam co\u011frafyas\u0131 s\u00fcrekli b\u00f6l\u00fcnme ve sava\u015f halinde. Rusya kar\u015f\u0131 Uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 olma projesi ile \u00e7oktan Ukrayna \u2013 K\u0131r\u0131m ve Suriyede . Ya\u015fam\u0131n \u00a0ola\u011fan alg\u0131lanan ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda t\u00fcm bu durumlar asl\u0131nda dramatik de\u011fi\u015fiklikler ve hepside ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti,ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in D\u00fcnyada en b\u00fcy\u00fck alacakl\u0131, \u00fclkede 2,5 milyar insan gelir adaletsizli\u011fi ile ma\u011fdur, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ise olduk\u00e7a geriledi ve alacaklar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7 t\u00fcketime kanalize ederse b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir k\u0131labilir ama bor\u00e7lu ABD bu alacaklar\u0131 nas\u0131l \u00f6deyecek. Almanya so\u011fuk sava\u015f d\u00f6neminde ABD ye g\u00f6t\u00fcrerek orada tuttu\u011fu \u00fclke alt\u0131n stokunun yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 4 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u00fclkeye geri getiriyor.\u00a0 D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek gerek neden ?<\/p>\n

Emperyalizm bug\u00fcn kendini yok etmeden bunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmenin yollar\u0131n\u0131 ar\u0131yor, en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcler birbirlerini h\u0131rpalamadan kaynaklara ve kendi kutsal alanlar\u0131na sahip olman\u0131n pe\u015findeler, kendi i\u00e7lerinde ise yeni sosyal yap\u0131lanma \u00fczerine derin felsefi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce ve giri\u015fimler ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriyorlar , ihtiyac\u0131 olsun olmas\u0131n herkese e\u015fit bir \u00fccret vermek gibi (bu konu \u00fczerine bir makaleyi sitemizde yer alan yorum yaz\u0131lar\u0131nda\u00a0 okuyabilirsiniz ) K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve temelsiz \u00a0oyuncular ise yar\u0131nki tufanda kendilerini kurtaraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fckleri t\u00fcm kaynaklar\u0131 \u00e7almak ve kendilerine alan yaratmak pe\u015finde. T\u0131pk\u0131 Filipinlerde Marcos, Irakta Saddam, \u0130talyada Mussolini, \u0130randa \u015eah, Romanyada \u00c7ave\u015fu\u015fku, M\u0131s\u0131rda Mubarek , Arnavutlukta Enver Hoca, Panamada Norigea, Arjantinde Videla gibi .<\/p>\n

BDI k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme endeksinin artan n\u00fcfusa kar\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrekli d\u00fc\u015fmesi ile risk y\u00f6netiminin 2016 dada en \u00f6nemli \u00f6nceli\u011fimiz olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. 2016 da daha fazla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmal\u0131, daha fazla arge yap\u0131p i\u015fimizi kendimizi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme bi\u00e7imlerimizi h\u0131zla geli\u015ftirmemiz gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Ender Balc\u0131 BCD \u0130\u015f Geli\u015ftirme ve Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2010 \u2013 2020 on y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 tamamlad\u0131k. Her on y\u0131l kendi i\u00e7erisinde sosyal,ekonomik, siyasi ve teknolojik\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 geli\u015fimleri ya\u015f\u0131yor\u00a0   Ge\u00e7mi\u015f zamana\u00a010 ar y\u0131ll\u0131k , 50 \u015fer y\u0131ll\u0131k, 100 er y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemler diye bakmaya\u00a0ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u00a0art\u0131k tarih konu\u015fmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz . \u0130nsanlar\u00a0 inceleme, ara\u015ft\u0131rma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re analiz yaparak matematiksel rasyonel de\u011ferlendirme yapabildiklerinden asl\u0131nda olaylar ve […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1736,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-yorum"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1725","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1725"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1725\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1736"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}