{"id":1980,"date":"2016-11-01T13:01:03","date_gmt":"2016-11-01T11:01:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bcdturkey.com.tr\/?p=1980"},"modified":"2016-11-01T13:01:03","modified_gmt":"2016-11-01T11:01:03","slug":"buyume-gelir-dagilimi-kriz-ii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/buyume-gelir-dagilimi-kriz-ii\/","title":{"rendered":"Economik b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2001 & 2008 krizleri"},"content":{"rendered":"

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2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 tamaml\u0131yor oldu\u011fumuz bu g\u00fcnlerde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de duruma sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bakabilmek i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikle 2000 den bu yana neler oldu,\u00a0 neler ya\u015fand\u0131 buna bir bakmak ve hat\u0131rlamakta yarar var.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

1998 Asya Pasifik krizi sonras\u0131 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de\u00a0 s\u0131ras\u0131yla be\u015f ana ba\u015fl\u0131kta \u00f6zetleyebilece\u011fimiz geli\u015fmeler sonras\u0131 kriz patlak verdi. 1- Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131n anayasay\u0131 Ecevit\u2019e f\u0131rlatmas\u0131 ile olu\u015fan siyasal gerginlikler sonucu faizler % 7500 e y\u00fckselirken, kurun 623.704 tl den 1.225.441 tl ye\u00a0 y\u00fckselmesi 2 \u2013 Bunun sonucunda borsa % 15 d\u00fc\u015ferken yabanc\u0131 sermayenin de yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131\u00a0 3 \u2013 15.450 adet \u015firketin iflas edip batmas\u0131, batan \u015firketlerin zincirleme bat\u0131k ve i\u015fsizlik sorununu beraberinde getirmesi.\"kara-carsamba\"<\/a><\/p>\n

4 \u2013 Faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi ile kredileri fonlayamayan bankalar\u0131n y\u00fcksek faizli hazine bonolar\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmas\u0131 ve hazinenin\u00a0 ise b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse edememesi, bir kamu bankas\u0131n\u0131n ak\u015fam takas y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yerine getirememesi\u00a0 5- 1998 Rusya krizi ile geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere para ak\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131, 1999 depremi ve sonras\u0131nda 2001 ekonomisindeki olumsuz geli\u015fmeler .<\/p>\n

2001\u2019den k\u0131saca akl\u0131m\u0131zda kalmas\u0131 gereken \u015fey, \u00a0kurun yakla\u015f\u0131k % 100 deval\u00fce olmas\u0131, \u015firket iflaslar\u0131 , b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7evrilememesi, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n d\u0131\u015far\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik\u00a0 olmal\u0131d\u0131r. 2016 sonuna geldi\u011fimizde bunlar\u0131 akl\u0131m\u0131zda tutal\u0131m.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kriz sonras\u0131 1 – Bankac\u0131l\u0131kta al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemler 2 – Kemal Dervi\u015fi kamu b\u00fct\u00e7esine getirdi\u011fi disiplin ve\u00a0 kriterlere s\u0131k\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131ya uyulmas\u0131 , 3 – D\u00f6viz kazand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 i\u015flemlere a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilmesi ve bunu etkin uygulayan tek parti iktidar\u0131 ile zaman i\u00e7erisinde sorunlar \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme giderken, bu d\u00f6nemde geli\u015fen k\u00fcresel krizden de minimum etkilenmemiz olanakl\u0131 olabilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Tek parti h\u00fck\u00fcmetince tavizsiz uygulanan yukar\u0131daki \u00fc\u00e7 karar sonucu elde edilen \u015fu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da akl\u0131m\u0131zda tutal\u0131m.<\/strong> 1– Kurlar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya geldi 2 \u2013 Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ithalat ucuzlad\u0131 3 \u2013 Ucuzlayan ithalata ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak enflasyon a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya indi 4 \u2013 D\u00fc\u015fen enflasyona ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak da faizler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya geldi.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Faizlerin olmas\u0131 gereken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 seviye ile d\u00fc\u015febildi\u011fi seviye aras\u0131ndaki fark da bankalarca yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sendikasyon kredileri ile s\u00fcbvanse edildi. B\u00f6ylece kurlar daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya geldi.\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye ithalat cenneti olunca yerli sanayi ve \u00fcretim rekabet edemedi ve firmalar kapand\u0131 . B\u00fcy\u00fcme modelimiz tamamen ithalata dayal\u0131 bir \u015fekile d\u00f6nerken, kamu b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplini de kamunun neredeyse t\u00fcm varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yabanc\u0131lara sat\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u015fe sonu\u00e7land\u0131. (de\u011ferlerinin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda ki sat\u0131\u015flar ba\u015fka bir yaz\u0131n\u0131n konusudur.)<\/p>\n

2008\u2019e geldi\u011fimizde Amerika ve Avrupa yeni krizin fark\u0131na vararak yava\u015ftan nas\u0131l \u00f6nlemler almal\u0131y\u0131za \u00e7abalarken, biz, dolu dizgin ayn\u0131 politikada devam ettik . Amerika\u2019da subprime konut kredileri krizi, Enron ve sonras\u0131nda Lehman Brothers bat\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan kredileri disipline ederek, kontrolleri s\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rarak ve konsolidasyonlar yaparak \u00f6nlemlerini ald\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

\"2008-kuresel-kriz\"<\/a>Likiditeyi art\u0131rarak sorunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar, bu bizim d\u0131\u015f kaynak al\u0131m\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ve ithalata dayal\u0131 modeli s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmemize olanak sa\u011flad\u0131, ancak 2016\u2019lara geldi\u011fimizde FED\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n art\u0131k bor\u00e7 verme i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda , el paras\u0131 ile saltanat s\u00fcren geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler ger\u00e7eklerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar. T\u0131pk\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye gibi.<\/p>\n

Asl\u0131nda bu durum AB i\u00e7inde daha \u00f6nce ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yunanistan, \u0130spanya ve Portekiz AB ye girdiklerinde ald\u0131klar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck miktardaki kaynaklar\u0131 t\u00fcketime y\u00f6nelik harcamalara ay\u0131rm\u0131\u015flar, (hatta bir ara Yunanistanda her evin bir havuzu oldu\u011fu konu\u015fulur hale gelmi\u015fti ) sonu\u00e7ta bu \u00fclkelerde vergiler ve i\u015fsizlik artm\u0131\u015f, emekli maa\u015flar\u0131 ve \u00fccretler d\u00fc\u015fmek zorunda kalm\u0131\u015f ve ulusal meclisleri \u00fclke lehine karar alamaz hale gelmi\u015fti. Yunanistan son durumda bir nevi kayyum y\u00f6netiminde devam etmektedir.<\/p>\n

Yaz\u0131m\u0131za 2016\u2019n\u0131n sonuna gelirken bu tarihsel s\u00fcre\u00e7 ve tek parti uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu anki sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 tespit ve buna y\u00f6nelik risk y\u00f6netimi ad\u0131na neler yapmal\u0131y\u0131z konusuyla devam edece\u011fim\u2026.<\/p>\n

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M.Ender BALCI<\/p>\n

bcdturkey.com.tr<\/a><\/p>\n

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      2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 tamaml\u0131yor oldu\u011fumuz bu g\u00fcnlerde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de duruma sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bakabilmek i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikle 2000 den bu yana neler oldu,\u00a0 neler ya\u015fand\u0131 buna bir bakmak ve hat\u0131rlamakta yarar var. 1998 Asya Pasifik krizi sonras\u0131 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de\u00a0 s\u0131ras\u0131yla be\u015f ana ba\u015fl\u0131kta \u00f6zetleyebilece\u011fimiz geli\u015fmeler sonras\u0131 kriz patlak verdi. 1- Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131n anayasay\u0131 Ecevit\u2019e f\u0131rlatmas\u0131 ile […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1992,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[34,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-yorum","category-guncel"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1980","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1980"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1980\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1992"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1980"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1980"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bcdturkey.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1980"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}